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From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2015 6:15 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: January 4
 
(-0.75) FOREST GREEN - Welling  (min. odds: 1.65)  4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-conference/forest-green-welling-CI2BhXvg/#ah;2
 
Nuneaton - (-0.5) BRISTOL ROVERS  (min. odds: 1.55)  4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-conference/nuneaton-bristol-rovers-S85NkVOB/

 
(-0.75) FOREST GREEN - Welling  (min. odds: 1.65)  4 points

I'd be very surprised if Forest Green don't manage to beat poor Welling, even if they only managed to win two consecutive league games at the beggining of the season in August. They've looked great in their 4:2 win away at Kidderminster on New Year's Day, they've won all three home games against bottom-eight teams so far (2:1 vs Chester, 2:0 vs Alfreton, 2:1 vs Dartford), I'm sure they'd want to set the record straight after an unlucky 1:1 draw away at Welling back in August (Welling took the lead via Forest Green's own goal, Norwood equalised before the break, but Forest Green failed to find a winner after the break despite all the chances they've had) and the team that humiliated Kidderminster, especially in the opening half which ended 0:3, a few days ago (Russell between the sticks; Bennett, Oliver, Racine and Kelly at the back; Kamdjo and Sinclair in the middle; Norwood and Frear on the flanks and, finally, Guthrie and Parkin up front) definitely seems strong enough to beat Welling comfortably - not to mention Forest Green will have an even stronger bench this time as right-back Pipe and midfielder Wedgbury should both return to the team after missing the New Year's Day triumph.
 
Welling have lost all seven away games at top-half teams so far (scored two, conceded as many as nineteen!), they're the fifth worst away team in the league, with a fourth worst away attack (only 0.86 goals scored per away game) and a very modest playing roster. They did sign a couple of midfielders today (Carmichael who was mostly playing in Conference South last season and 39-year-old player-coach Little who will probably be more useful as a coach than as a player at this level football and especially against relatively expensive teams like Forest Green), but they've lost plenty of key players since August (first they've lost key attackers Guthrie, Lafayette and Ayala to Forest Green, Luton and Torquay respectively in the summer, loanees Hudson, Wakefield, Sho-Silva, Bender and Taylor, to mention just a few, have all returned to their respective parent clubs, then they've sold their star midfielder and top scorer Beautyman to Peterborough in November and now they've obviously also lost their player(midfielder)-manager Day who switched to Ebbsfleet (on-loan striker Marsh has decided to follow him as well). All of the mentioned players were first-choice players at Welling - even their now former player-manager Day was forced to play every single game once they've lost Beautyman. Also, they've failed to score a single goal in the last three games and only managed to record one shot on target in the two games, both defeats (0:4, 0:2), against Dover.
 
I expect Forest Green to record somewhere around ten shots, somewhere around five shots on target and score at least a couple of goals. I don't expect Welling to have more than a few shots on target nor to score more than one goal (if that many). Anything better than 1.65 for this (-0.75) asian handicap (the bet is won if Forest Green win by at least two goals, but a half of the bet is also won if they win by only one goal - the other half of the bet is void in that case) looks great to me.
 
1.83 with Pinnacle...
1.82 with 12bet, Dafabet...
1.81 with SBO, 5Dimes, 188bet...
1.77 with Bet365...



Nuneaton - (-0.5) BRISTOL ROVERS  (min. odds: 1.55) 4 points

I'm afraid Nuneaton could face a long second half of the season. They've just lost their (arguably) best two players in keeper Burton (who was on the shortest-term loan from Shrewsbury and performed all kinds of magic tricks in their latest two games, both of which he managed to keep clean sheets in) and winger Dawson (who's only missed a few games due to injury since he joined on loan from Leicester in October and scored more than a couple of crucial goals) and so far they've only managed to re-sign keeper Dibble who's conceded fourteen goals in six games during his initial loan spell in November and December. That's another modest playing roster I'm afraid (their man strikers Gash and Sodje have only managed to score a goal each in the last ten games), they have the third worst home defence in the league (as many as 1.77 goals conceded per home game) and a horrible record against top-nine teams, both home (two comfortable defeats and an extremely lucky draw with Macclesfield when Dawson scored an injury-time equaliser) and away (six defeats and a lucky goalless draw at Grimsby back in the first week of the season in August).
 
Bristol Rovers have played a few draws too many away from home to be closer to league leaders at this moment in time, but they're still second on the league table and this is the kind of game they should definitely win. They're now unbeaten in the last twelve league games, they've won three of their last four (3:2 vs Gateshead thanks to a spectacular televised comeback, 2:1 at Torquay, 4:0 vs Macclesfield, 1:1 vs Torquay), they've already beaten Nuneaton 3:1 at home in September and I expect them to have much more shots, both on and off target, and beat Nuneaton. They've only managed to grind out a goalless draw in a midweek game at Nuneaton's fellow strugglers Alfreton in November, but they did manage to score and win (and keep another couple of clean sheets) away at Telford and Southport. I would be surprised if they concede a goal at Nuneaton, but I'd be even more surprised if they don't manage to score, now that Burton is no longer between the sticks for Nuneaton.
 
1.73 with Coral (1X2)...
1.71 with 12bet, Dafabet...
1.70 with Pinnacle...
1.69 with 5Dimes (1X2)...
1.68 with SBO (1X2), Bet365...
 
 
UNOFFICIAL "OUTSIDER" BETS:
 
Aldershot - TELFORD  (min. odds: 5.00) 1 point   (6.34 @Pinnacle, 6.18 @5Dimes...)
 
Torquay - ALFRETON  (min. odds: 5.00) 1 point   (6.28 @Pinnacle, 6.20 @5Dimes...)
 
 
 
 
From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2015 6:30 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: recorded odds
 
(-0.75) FOREST GREEN - Welling  (1.72 @SBO) 4 points
Nuneaton - (-0.5) BRISTOL ROVERS  (1.62 @Pinnacle) 4 points
 
 
 
 
 
From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2015 11:00 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: +5.36 this weekend

OFFICIAL PICKS:
 
(-0.75) FOREST GREEN - Welling  (1.72 @SBO) 4 points  FT 4:1 (+2.88)
Nuneaton - (-0.5) BRISTOL ROVERS  (1.62 @Pinnacle) 4 points  FT 0:2 (+2.48)
 
2 picks
8 points staked
+5.36 point profit
2-0-0
67% ROI
8.9% ROC
(advised bank: 60 points)
 
 
UNOFFICIAL "OUTSIDER" BETS:
 
Aldershot - TELFORD  (6.34 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:2 (+5.34)
Torquay - ALFRETON  (6.28 @Pinnacle) 1 point  FT 1:1 (-1)
 
2 picks
2 points staked
+4.34 point profit
1-0-1
217% ROI