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From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2019 2:16 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: official pick #1 for Saturday, October 12
 
National League: SOLIHULL - Bromley  (min. odds: 1.90) 1 point
https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/national-league/solihull-moors-bromley-SOZLvQXT/

Solihull are the second best home team in the league with six wins and two arguably unlucky defeats (3:0 vs Torquay, 2:1 vs Aldershot, 2:1 vs Ebbsfleet, 1:2 to Eastleigh, 0:1 to Yeovil, 2:0 vs Stockport, 3:1 vs Wrexham and, finally, 2:0 vs Sutton on Tuesday), they have both the second best home attack and the second best home defence with as many as fifteen goals scored and only six goals conceded in their eight home games so far, they've scored seven goals and only conceded once (in a comfortable 3:1 win) in their last three home games, all wins, they've been perfect so far at home against teams playing with a lone striker and four at the back and they've signed another few excellent players in the last couple of weeks (striker Beesley joined on loan from last season's play-off winners Salford, midfielder Ball joined from struggling Ebbsfleet, while versatile midfielder/defender Gunning joined from Billericay).

Even though they're still missing their first-choice strike partnership of McCallum and Blissett, both of their current first-choice strikers (Beesley and Wright) scored in midweek and I can't see Bromley keeping a clean sheet here. Their left wing-back Reckord scored a couple of important goals recently, but it's the right side of their attack which I see as even more important in this game - Bromley have conceded a lot of goals from their left side so far this season, while Solihull's right wing-back Vaughan already assisted for three goals, two of which were headers.

Bromley are obviously doing great, they're only second on the league table on goal-difference, but they were flattered by full-time scores on more than a couple of occasions so far, especially away from home. They're the third best away team in the league with only one defeat so far and they have the fourth best away defence in the league with nine goals conceded in their eight away games so far, but all (or in the worst case almost all) of their away wins so far would've been draws on most days. They've lost two of their last three (1:3 at Yeovil, 1:2 to Barrow, 2:1 at Barnet) and their only away game at a top-eight team (1:3 at Yeovil) and they're still missing the likes of first-choice keeper Cousins, first-choice centre-back Okoye, another centre-back Goodman, versatile midfielder/defender Higgs and striker Clifton.

Solihull won this fixture 5:0 last season in August (and then also 2:0 away at Bromley in April) and I don't expect such a thrashing this time around, but I do think Solihull have a slightly better chance for another home win than these odds suggest. All things considered, anything better than 1.90 for the home win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:
 
2.12 with Pinnacle...
2.10 with Unibet...
2.09 with SBO...
2.05 with 188bet, Bet365 (-0.5), BetVictor (-0.5), Bwin, Sportingbet...
 
(recorded odds: 2.04 with SBO
closing odds: 1.92 with Pinnacle)



From: Skeeve picks 
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2019 2:31 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: official pick #2 for Saturday, October 12
 
National League: Ebbsfleet - MAIDENHEAD  (min. odds: 3.00) 1 point
https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/national-league/ebbsfleet-maidenhead-v3s9sSmB/

Two poor teams on a poor run, but numbers suggest that Maidenhead should actually be favorites here. Both teams are missing some first-choice players, but Ebbsfleet have also sacked their manager Hill a couple of days ago, they're at the bottom of the league table with only ten points and as many as ten defeats in sixteen games, they're the worst home team in the league with one win, two draws, as many as five defeats, eleven goals scored and as many as nineteen goals conceded in their eight home games so far, which makes their home defence the worst in the league by far.

They also have the worst defence in the league in general with as many as 32 goals conceded in sixteen National League games, they've lost three consecutive games (0:1 at Wrexham, 0:2 at Harrogate, 2:4 to Torquay) and only won one of their last nine, they have the worst possible record against fellow bottom-ten teams (0:1 at Fylde, 1:2 to Aldershot, 0:1 at Wrexham) and they're still missing the likes of first-choice left-back Thomas (who already scored a couple of goals this season), first-choice attacking midfielder Goddard (one goal and two assists so far), central midfielder Lawless, first-choice striker Reid (who scored three goals in the last month), the likes of another first-choice midfielder Sutherland and versatile defender Grimes are only on the bench, while key central midfielder and their best assistant Ball (three assists and one goal) left to join rivals Solihull a week ago.

They did sign more than a couple of players so far this month (central midfielder Payne joined on loan from Crawley, striker Adeloye joined following his summer release by rivals Dagenham, left-back/winger Blackman joined following his release by Southend, young attacking midfielder Morgan joined on loan from Charlton and their fans think he's way too good for the National League as he played an important part last season and the latest signing is centre-back Ekpiteta who joins on loan from Newport), but on the other hand, they'll be managed by Hill's assistant manager Watson today who's only joined the club as an assistant manager ten days ago.

Maidenhead aren't doing good either - they're without a win in eight, lost their last four and as many as six of their last seven games and failed to score in four of these six defeats. They've also lost three consecutive away games (but at teams who are or were on a magnificent run - they've lost 0:1 at Barnet who were near the end of their six-game unbeaten run, 0:2 at Barrow who have now won seven games in a row and 1:2 at Eastleigh who are now on a five-game unbeaten run at home and took ten points from their last four games), but they're still the sixth best away team in the league and have the third best away defence with only eight goals conceded in their eight away games so far.

They're unbeaten at bottom-eight teams (1:1 vs Chesterfield, 4:1 vs Chorley, 3:0 at Sutton, 2:2 at Wrexham) and, even though they're still missing some first-choice players such as winger Fenelon and suspended midfielder Comley, the likes of first-choice right-back Twumasi, first-choice left-back Steer, versatile midfielder/defender Clerima and striker Cassidy are all back in the team. With Cassidy, Mensah and Akintunde on the bench, there's plenty of options for attacking second-half changes.

All things considered, anything better than 3.00 for the away win looks great to me. 
 
pre-mail odds:
 
3.75 with Pinnacle, BetVictor...
3.74 with Marathon...
3.60 with Bet365...
3.40 with Bwin, Sportingbet...
3.30 with 188bet...
3.25 with Dafabet, Unibet...
 
(recorded odds: 3.44 with Pinnacle
closing odds: 3.27 with Pinnacle)



From: Skeeve picks 
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2019 3:32 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: VIP pick #1 for Saturday, October 12

National League (in-play, at/starting with 0:1): (-0.5) BARNET - Woking  (min. odds: 1.85) 0.5 point
 
Barnet need to win the remainder of the game for the bet to be won, so it's fine with us if it ends up being a draw. Woking are without a single win in the last eight and are missing some defenders (and also top scorer Hyde) today and, all things considered, Pinnacle's 2.17 on Barnet to win the remainder of the game (they're currently 0:1 down) looks more than good enough for me.
 
(recorded odds: 2.12 with Pinnacle)

 
 
From: Skeeve picks 
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2019 4:22 PM
Subject: Skeeve Picks: VIP pick #2 for Saturday, October 12
 
National League (in-play, at 0:0): Yeovil - Harrogate OVER 1 GOAL  (min. odds: 1.80) 0.5 point
 
Both Yeovil and Harrogate are capable of scoring plenty of goals and, even though Yeovil seem more likely to break the deadlock, they're missing their first-choice left-back Dickinson today and I wouldn't be surprised by an away goal either. All things considered, Pinnacle's 2.11 for this OVER 1 GOAL bet (we get our money back if exactly one goal is scored in the last half an hour and the bet is obviously won if two or more goals are scored) looks more than good enough for me.
 
(recorded odds: 2.08 with Pinnacle)