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From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, February 27, 2016 10:30 AM
 
National League: Welling - (-0.25) ALDERSHOT  (min. odds: 1.65) 4 points
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/welling-aldershot-6T13SSYC/#ah;2

It would be an understatement to say that Welling aren't doing good. They've lost nine of their last eleven games and only shared points in the remaining two (0:1 to Macclesfield, 1:2 to Dover, 0:4 to Grimsby, 1:2 at Havant in the FA Trophy, 1:2 to Barrow, 1:1 at Halifax, 0:1 at Braintree, 1:1 vs Altrincham, 0:2 at Cheltenham, 0:2 to Wrexham and, finally, 0:2 at second-bottom Torquay on Tuesday), they haven't won a National League game since October 13, they've lost seven of their last eight home games (0:1 to Southport, 0:5 to Carlisle in the FA Cup, 0:1 to Macclesfield, 1:2 to Dover, 0:4 to Grimsby, 1:2 to Barrow, 1:1 vs Altrincham which was a rather lucky draw as Altrincham were a much better team in the opening half, hit the woodwork and then took the lead just before the hour mark, but Welling equalised in the last minute from their first real chance, 0:2 to Wrexham), they have the fourth worst home attack (only seventeen goals scored in as many home games) and are the fourth worst home team in the league, they've now only scored one lucky last-minute equaliser in more than 460 minutes of football, they've conceded as many as 28 goals in their last thirteen games, haven't kept a clean sheet in the league since October 3 or, if you want, in nineteen (!) league games, their new manager is still waiting for their first win with him in charge, they've conceded nine and scored only two since he took over (he's been at the helm for six games now, four of which were comfortable defeats without a single goal scored and two of which were rather lucky 1:1 draws, away at Halifax and at home vs Altrincham), they've recently lost their first-choice left-back Jeffers to Forest Green while both key midfielder Lee and key centre-back Chambers who's only missed three games so far this season, all of which were defeats, are both extremely doubtful. Their expected starting eleven (Rodak between the sticks; Williams, Gayle, Lokko/Chambers and Chesmain at the back; Corne and Nortey/Lee in the midde of the park; Harris and Ferry on the flanks; Adeloye and Yusuff/Kabba up front) is nothing to be afraid of and really lacks some threat in the final third. Aldershot aren't the best away team in the league, but they've actually been much better on the road than at home so far this season and they have a near-perfect record vs bottom-eight teams (nine wins and a defeat away at Kidderminster back in November, eighteen goals scored, five goals conceded, as many as seven clean sheets). They've already won away at Guiseley and Braintree in August, at Barrow in September, at Torquay and Boreham Wood in October and at Macclesfield in January (they've also shared points at league leaders Cheltenham in August, mid-table Southport in October and at play-off chasing Eastleigh in December), they've won five and lost only one of their seven away games at teams outside the top-eleven, their last weekend's high-scoring 2:3 defeat away at Gateshead came after four great results and three consecutive clean sheets (3:1 vs Chester, 2:0 at Macclesfield, 1:0 vs much improved Kidderminster, 0:0 vs big-spending Tranmere) and their well-settled starting eleven (Smith between the sticks; Alexander, Oastler, Beckles and McGinty at the back; Gallagher and Lathrope/Stevenson in the middle of the park; Dan Walker and Browne on the flanks; Charlie Walker and Lafayette/Pavey up front) should be even bigger favorites away at poor Welling if you ask me. Anything better than 1.65 for this (-0.25) asian handicap (we only lose two points in case of a draw) looks great to me.
 
pre-mail odds:
 
1.83 with Pinnacle...
1.82 with 12bet/Dafabet, SBO...
1.77 with 188bet...
1.75 with Bet365...
 
 
 
National League: Southport - BOREHAM WOOD  (min. odds: 2.80) 1 point
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/vanarama-national-league/southport-boreham-wood-rinU4yuK/

Southport's honeymoon period with their new manager Maamria's seems to be over - they've lost three of their last four and are now without a win in the last seven (0:0 at Bromley, 1:2 at Dover in the FA Trophy, 0:0 at Chester, 0:1 to Forest Green, 0:1 at Tranmere, 1:1 vs Braintree and, finally, 1:3 at Lincoln last weekend, which was really a one-way-traffic game in which Southport only managed to score a consolation goal from their one shot on target) and they've now lost their skipper and key centre-back Foster who's switched to Harrogate to be closer to home, which means we'll most probably see midfielder Nolan in central defence along with Thompson as he already played there for a couple of games in December when Foster was suspended (Southport have won both those games, but conceded as many as five goals in 180 minutes - 5:3 vs Bromley, 3:2 at Worcester in the FA Trophy thanks to an injury-time winner). Southport have already lost a couple of home games to bottom-ten teams (0:1 to Torquay, 1:2 to Chester), not to mention, for example, their three 0:4 home defeats to some top-half teams (Eastleigh, Grimsby and Cheltenham), they have the third worst home defence in the league (as many as 29 goals conceded in sixteen home games) and, even though that's far from being the worst starting eleven in the league (Crocombe between the sticks; Challoner, Nolan, Thompson and Blakeman/Cartwright who they've just signed on loan from Fleetwood at the back; Wright and Gary Jones in the middle of the park; Phenix/Giles and Rutherford on the flanks; Almond and Allen/Bishop up front), I still think Southport are significantly overrated here, especially considering Foster's departure. Boreham Wood have the second best away defence in the league (only fourteen goals conceded in fifteen away games), they're now without a defeat in the last three away games, the latest of which was a very welcome 2:0 win at play-off chasing Braintree, and they've only lost two of their last eleven away games (2:1 at Torquay, 0:0 at Macclesfield, 1:1 at Kidderminster, 1:1 at Guiseley, 1:1 at Northwich in the FA Cup, 2:1 at Bromley, 0:1 at Altrincham which was a very unlucky result considering the fact Boreham Wood were actually a better team, 0:1 at Forest Green, 0:0 at Woking, 0:0 at top-three Grimsby and, finally, 2:0 at Braintree ten days ago). They still have a problem with scoring goals, but with Lucas rejoining on loan from Bristol Rovers, Sam-Yorke joining on loan from Forest Green and Chiedozie joining from Cambridge Utd, at least they're much better equipped up front than they were in their away defeats at Altrincham and Forest Green and let's not forget their defence - that's now three consecutive clean sheets on the road and five clean sheets in their last eight National League games. They've also only lost one of their seven away games at teams outside the top-ten, they've already won at the likes of Bromley and Torquay (not to mention their wins at play-off chasing Tranmere and Braintree) and I'm pretty sure we'll see a starting eleven from the 2:0 win away at Braintree ten days ago, which is a very good and defensively very solid line-up indeed (Russell between the sticks; Woodards, Doe, Stephens and Devera at the back; Cox, Conor Clifford and Howell in the middle of the park; Shakes and Jeffrey on the flanks; Lucas up front). Anything better than 2.80 for the away win looks great to me.
 
pre-mail odds:
 
3.49 with Pinnacle...
3.42 with 5Dimes...
3.40 with Marathon...
3.30 with Ladbrokes...
3.30 with Will Hill...
3.25 with 12bet/Dafabet, Coral...
3.20 with Bet365...
3.15 with SBO, 188bet...