From: Skeeve picks
Sent: Saturday, December 05, 2015 10:30 AM
National League: (-0.75) CHELTENHAM - Chester  (min. odds: 1.60) 2

League leaders Cheltenham are in great form, they've won four and shared
points with the biggest rivals (one point less) Forest Green in their
last five, they've only conceded one goal in the last 460 minutes of
National League football, they have the best defence in the league both
home and away and they've scored between one and seven goals in each of
their last ten league games. Sometimes it's a deflected free kick,
sometimes it's the attacking quality (Wright has scored ten so far,
Waters only one less, both winger Munns and central midfielder Pell
added six goals each and the most recent loan signings, Reading striker
Novakovich who's hit the woodwork twice in the second half at Aldershot
last weekend and Wigan winger Jennings, have added even more threat),
but Cheltenham have looked very solid recently and the well-known team
(Phillips between the sticks; Dickie, Downes, Parslow and McLennan at
the back; Jennings, Pell, Storer and Munns in the middle; Waters and
Wright up front) should be able to take another three points here.
Chester are one of the worst away teams in the league (sixth worst
attack), they've lost as many as seven and won only one of their nine
away games at teams outside the bottom-five so far, they've only scored
one goal in their last four away games, three of which were defeats (0:1
at Altrincham, 1:2 at Forest Green, 0:0 at Boreham Wood and, finally,
0:1 at Gateshead last weekend), they've conceded at least once in
thirteen of their last fourteen games (the remaining one being a
goalless draw at Boreham Wood which would've been a home win on some
other day as Boreham Wood were a better team and Chester failed to
record a single shot on goal) and they'll be without their key
centre-back Heneghan (who is most probably switching to League football
in a few weeks) due to accumulated yellow cards, which means we'll see
the Sharps - Whitmore centre-back partnership for the first time this
season - Whitmore is a Burnley loanee who scored an own goal in a 0:1
defeat at one of the worst home teams in the league Gateshead last
weekend. The expected Chester line-up (Worsnop between the sticks;
Higgins, Sharps, Whitmore and Hunt at the back; Shaw, George and Rooney
in the middle of the park; Chapell and Mahon on the flanks; Hannah up
front) is far from being a bad team, but Cheltenham should still win by
at least one or two goals here. Anything better than 1.60 for the
(-0.75) asian handicap (if Cheltenham win by one goal only, half of the
bet is won while the other half is void) looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

1.82 with BetVictor, Unibet...
1.80 with Pinnacle...
1.77 with Bet365...

National League: Kidderminster - GATESHEAD  (min. odds: 2.50) 0.5 point

Kidderminster shouldn't be favorites here if you ask me. They have a
terrible home record against top-half teams (four defeats, three of
which by two goals, and an extremely lucky draw with Grimsby back on the
opening day of the season in August thanks to a 92nd minute equaliser -
Grimsby were a much better team and would've taken all the points on
most days) and, even though they've managed to win their last couple of
home games (1:0 vs depleted Woking thanks to an 87th minute winner which
would've been a draw on most days and a flattering 2:0 win vs poor
Aldershot), they're still at the bottom of the league table, which isn't
that much of a surprise considering all the players they've lost lately
- first in the summer (keeper Lewis, defenders Gowling, Grimes and
Nicholson, midfielders Byrne and Gittings and striker Hughes were all
first-choice players last season) and then during this season (winger
Dawson, midfielders Verma and Clarke and striker Styche have all been
loaned out due to financial problems). To make things even worse,
first-choice centre-back Tunnicliffe is still out injured while
first-choice striker Murphy's just been recalled by Walsall. Gateshead
have plenty of selections problems of their own as left-back/winger
Pattison, wingers Gillies, Marwood and Phillips, midfielders Chandler
and Ramshaw and striker Shaw are all still injured, but they're the
fourth best away team in the league, their new manager Aspin has plenty
of experience at this level, they have a near-perfect away record at
bottom-ten teams (four wins and a 1:1 draw at Halifax back in September,
when they started slowly, but should've scored a late winner) and the
team that's beaten Chester last weekend (Russell between the sticks;
Baxter, Curtis, Clark and Cranston at the back; McLaughlin, Mafuta and
Ramsden in the middle of the park; Wrightson and Hamilton on the flanks;
ten-goal striker Bowman up front) shouldn't be outsiders here. Anything
better than 2.50 for the away win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

3.05 with 12bet/Dafabet...
3.01 with 5Dimes...
3.00 with SBO, Bet365...
2.98 with Marathon...
2.97 with Pinnacle...
National League: Tranmere - BRAINTREE  (min. odds: 3.00) 0.5 point

I expected Tranmere to be favorites here, but I didn't expect Braintree
to end up being so underrated. Tranmere have only won one of their last
seven games (0:0 vs Lincoln in the FA Cup, 0:2 at Lincoln in the FA Cup
replay, 0:1 to Dover, 0:1 at Lincoln, this time in the league, 2:1 vs
poor Guiseley thanks to a 93rd minute penalty, 1:4 at Woking and,
finally, 0:0 at struggling Boreham Wood last weekend), they've only
scored three goals (all of which were scored by Norwood, two of which
deep in injury time) in the last 700 minutes of football, they've lost
both home games played against top-eleven teams so far and they've just
lost their best defender Hogan who's been great at both centre-back and
right-back this season to a long-term injury. Braintree are the third
best away team in the league, only Cheltenham have a better defence,
they've won six and lost only two of their eleven away games so far and,
with only one defeat in the last nine games or, if you want, only two
defeats in the last fifteen, they don't deserve to be 4.50 outsiders
here - they've already won away at Bromley and Eastleigh and shared
points at league leaders Cheltenham and Dover, not to mention the
comfortable wins at Altrincham, Welling, Halifax and Kidderminster. They've
looked very good in the last four league games (a couple of wins, one of
which against high-flying Macclesfield who only failed to score against
Braintree in the last eleven games, and a couple of draws, both of which
can be considered unlucky, especially last weekend's goalless draw
against Torquay who only managed to record one shot on goal, straight
into the arms of the Braintree keeper, while Braintree had at least half
a dozen chances and hit the woodwork more than a couple of times)
and, if they manage to stop Norwood like they've already managed to stop
Macclesfield's Dennis (league's top scorer), this will be an away win -
Braintree have scored between one and six goals in six consecutive games
before last weekend's unlucky goalless draw with Torquay. Anything
better than 3.00 for the away win looks great to me.

pre-mail odds:

4.80 with Will Hill...
4.63 with Pinnacle...
4.60 with Bwin...
4.55 with Marathon...
4.53 with 5Dimes...
4.50 with Bet365, Coral...
4.45 with 12bet/Dafabet...
4.40 with SBO...